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OCTOBER 25,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:53 P.M. ET:

NO SHOCK HERE – FROM NEWSBUSTERS:   In the twelve weeks since the party conventions concluded in late July, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has received significantly more broadcast network news coverage than his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, but nearly all of that coverage (91%) has been hostile, according to a new study by the Media Research Center (MRC).  In addition, the networks spent far more airtime focusing on the personal controversies involving Trump (440 minutes) than about similar controversies involving Clinton (185 minutes). Donald Trump’s treatment of women was given 102 minutes of evening news airtime, more than that allocated to discussing Clinton’s e-mail scandal (53 minutes) and the Clinton Foundation pay-for-play scandals (40 minutes) combined.  Not surprised at all.  The press has returned to 19th-century patterns.  News organizations now advance political agendas, almost all of them on the left.

THIS IS JUSTICE? – FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES:    The Justice Department has replaced the New York team of agents and lawyers investigating the death of Eric Garner, officials said, a highly unusual shake-up that could jump-start the long-stalled case and put the government back on track to seek criminal charges.  Mr. Garner, 43, died in 2014 on a Staten Island street corner, where two police officers confronted him and accused him of selling untaxed cigarettes. One of the officers, Daniel Pantaleo, was seen on a video using a chokehold, prohibited by the New York Police Department, to subdue him. Mr. Garner’s last words, “I can’t breathe,” became a rallying cry for protesters around the country.  Federal authorities have been investigating whether officers violated Mr. Garner’s civil rights in his fatal encounter with the police. But the case had been slowed by a dispute because federal prosecutors and Federal Bureau of Investigation officials in New York opposed bringing charges, while prosecutors with the Civil Rights Division at the Justice Department in Washington argued there was clear evidence to do so.  Apparently, Obama's crew at the Department of Justice didn't get the result they wanted from an honest investigation, so they changed the investigators.  They must long for the old Soviet Union.

HIGH REGARD FOR POLICE – FROM CNS:   The percentage of Americans who say they have a “great deal” of respect for the police in their area has climbed to 76 percent—just one percentage point shy of the all-time high of 77 percent recorded 49 years ago, according to a Gallup poll released today.  Respect for the police has increased over the past year among Americans of differing racial groups, ideologies, political affiliations and age, according to data published in a Gallup analysis.  Since 1965, Gallup has asked this question nine times: “How much respect do you have for the police in your area—a great deal, some, or hardly none?”  The first time Gallup asked it--in a survey conducted April 2-7, 1965—70 percent said they had a great deal of respect for the police, 22 percent said they had some respect, and 4 percent said they had hardly any, and 4 percent said they had no opinion.  It's good to see this.  Yes, there are some bad cops, but most do a fine job, and risk their lives every time they stop a driver or knock on a front door.

October 25, 2016       Permalink

THE THREE OUTLIERS MOVE TOWARD HILLARY – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  The three polling holdouts – L.A. Times, TBD/TIFF, and Rasmussen, have, as of this morning, tilted ever so slightly toward Hillary, meaning that the major pollsters are now unanimous in seeing a Hillary victory.

But the margins are so close in those three polls as to be meaningless.  Rasmussen has Hillary up 43-42%, not even close to the magic 50% mark.  IBD/TIFF has Hillary up 42-41%, the first time she has ever led in this poll, which has been the most accurate in recent presidential elections.  L.A. Times has Hillary up 45-44.1%, a difference of less than one percentage point.

Other polls show Clinton well ahead.

Do today's results mean there's a trend toward Hillary?  No.  They simply mean she has made incremental progress.  But she is still below 50%. 

Early voting in several states is actually showing enthusiasm for Trump, but, again, that may simply reflect the zeal of some Trump voters who cast their ballots early.

I wouldn't read much into these numbers at this point.  The CNN/ORC poll shows Clinton up by five, 49-44%.  That's a solid lead, but still places her under 50%.   The American voters' enthusiasm for the "probable winner" is still very much under control.

Two weeks to go.  The key will be in the trending.  If you see all polls moving toward Hillary, it will mean that the Trump "miracle" just isn't happening.  If you see the race tightening, and the three outlier polls moving back to Trump, we could be in for a surprise.

As in all elections, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.  That will depend on turnout.  Who will vote?   Who will stay home?  And will those who vote have told the truth to pollsters?

October 25,  2016     Permalink

NOTHING TO SEE, NOTHING TO SEE – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  Russia, down and out not many years ago, is rebuilding its armed forces into a modern, superb organization, with the latest technology.  From London's Mirror: 

Russia has revealed its biggest ever nuclear missile which is powerful enough to destroy a country as big as France with a single strike.

Vladimir Putin is seeking to replace his arsenal of SS-18 Satan weapons with the new RS-28 Sarmat super-nukes.

They are packed with up to 16 nuclear warheads according to pictures revealed online from the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau.

The weapons – which will be ready for launch in 2018 – will make the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki look like “popguns”, experts have said.

A message posted alongside the picture said: “In accordance with the Decree of the Russian Government 'On the State Defense Order for 2010 and the planning period 2012-2013', the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau was instructed to start design and development work on the Sarmat.

COMMENT:  We have yet to hear a reaction from Field Marshal Obama or Grand Admiral Kerry.  Of course, Obama leaves office in less than three months, so maybe he's lost interest.  Or maybe he wasn't much interested in the first place.

Frightening technology, aimed at us.

October 25, 2016       Permalink

INCIDENT IN PHILLY – AT 8:06 A.M. ET:  There has been a disturbing flash-mob attack at Temple University in Philadelphia.  From NBC Local: 

Four juveniles were arrested in a series of flash mob-style attacks on Temple University's campus this weekend that left students and police officers hurt, police and university officials said.

Groups of young people, estimated to number between 20 to 100, roved the school's North Philadelphia campus Friday night for nearly two hours causing havoc, authorities said.

Students were punched and kicked, an officer tossed to the ground and stones were thrown at passing cars, police said. Officers from three agencies — the Philadelphia Police Department, Temple University police and SEPTA police —responded to the incidents.

As many as six Temple students were hurt in the attacks as they walked around campus between 8 p.m. and 9:30 p.m. that night, along with a university police officer and a Philadelphia police horse.

One student, who was not identified, told the college news site The Tab she was walking with her boyfriend near 16th and Oxford streets around 8 p.m. when they were attacked by two kids.
The student told the news site her boyfriend was able to run away but she was grabbed by the hair and beaten on her head and back.

“I somehow got to the other side of Oxford Street by the time they got me to the ground. I remember shoes coming for my face and after that I heard other kids from the group saying ‘Yo chill, yo chill, it’s just a girl’ and they pulled my attackers off me," she reportedly said.

COMMENT:  I look in vain for any national reporting of this incident.  I guess the students' lives don't matter. 

October 25,  2016     Permalink

OCTOBER 24, 2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THIS JUST IN – FROM THE POLITICO:  President Barack Obama is campaigning to ensure that no one flees America because of a Donald Trump presidency, according to the White House.  During a gaggle with reporters Monday aboard Air Force One, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Obama would “spend a significant amount of time” campaigning for Hillary Clinton and other Democrats down the ballot next week.  Earnest also was asked whether Obama would leave the country if Trump, a man he has said is unfit to succeed him, is elected president.  “He’s working very hard to make sure that nobody has to leave the country as a result of an electoral outcome that the president doesn’t support,” Earnest said.
Obama spoke at a Clinton fundraiser in California with about 350 guests earlier Monday. He called for Trump to get crushed on Election Day.  A perfect example of the adolescent quality of this administration.

WHY AM I NOT SHOCKED? – FROM DAILY CALLER:   A global warming research center at the London School of Economics got millions of dollars from UK taxpayers by taking credit for research it didn’t perform, an investigation by The Daily Mail revealed.  The UK government gave $11 million dollars to the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) in exchange for research that the organization reportedly never actually did.  Many papers CCCEP claimed to have published to get government money weren’t about global warming, were written before the organization was even founded, or were written by researchers unaffiliated with CCCEP. The government never checked CCCEP’s supposed publication lists, saying they were “taken on trust,” according to the report.  “It is serious misconduct to claim credit for a paper you haven’t supported, and it’s fraud to use that in a bid to renew a grant,” Professor Richard Tol, a climate economics expert from Sussex University whose research was reportedly stolen by CCCEP, told The Daily Mail. “I’ve never come across anything like it before. It stinks.”   When will we learn that many "scholars" are no more honest or ethical than anyone else? 

MORE ON THE WONDERS OF ACADEME – FROM FOX:   Left-wing students at the University of California, Berkeley are protesting again. This time, however, these students are calling for “safe spaces” for transgendered people, as well as “spaces of color” at the University (which they already have).  In video of the protest, the so-called anti-racism protesters were seen denying passage across the bridge to white students — shouting “go around” — while happily allowing students of color to pass through.  After blocking the bridge, the protesting students moved towards the front of campus to occupy the front of the student store, because they felt it interfered with their “safe spaces”.   I'm sure this will improve the lives of people of color all over the world.  Yeah, right.

October 24, 2016       Permalink

OH DEAR, NOT THIS – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  I hate to see the name of the FBI dragged through the mud, but when Clinton interests are involved, how can it be otherwise?  From The Wall Street Journal: 

The political organization of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, an influential Democrat with longstanding ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton, gave nearly $500,000 to the election campaign of the wife of an official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation who later helped oversee the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email use.

Campaign finance records show Mr. McAuliffe’s political-action committee donated $467,500 to the 2015 state Senate campaign of Dr. Jill McCabe, who is married to Andrew McCabe, now the deputy director of the FBI.

The Virginia Democratic Party, over which Mr. McAuliffe exerts considerable control, donated an additional $207,788 worth of support to Dr. McCabe’s campaign in the form of mailers, according to the records. That adds up to slightly more than $675,000 to her candidacy from entities either directly under Mr. McAuliffe’s control or strongly influenced by him. The figure represents more than a third of all the campaign funds Dr. McCabe raised in the effort.

Mr. McAuliffe and other state party leaders recruited Dr. McCabe to run, according to party officials. She lost the election to incumbent Republican Dick Black.

COMMENT:  The FBI has been stained this year.  It must be kept free of politics and political influence.  We depended on Director James Comey to do just that, but, considering his handling of the Hillary Clinton probe, I'm not sure he's come out very well.  I'd say a new director might be in order, but he, or she, would be appointed by the new president.  What a prospect.

October 24,  2016     Permalink

WE CAN'T WAIT – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  For it to be over, that is.   What an awful election campaign this is.   Michael Barone calls it "the ugliest election," at the Washington Examiner: 

In last week's third and (thankfully) final presidential debate, each candidate did an excellent job of presenting convincing arguments why people shouldn't vote for the other.

Donald Trump called Hillary Clinton a felon and Hillary Clinton called Donald Trump a traitor. Unfortunately for America, there is plenty of basis for the former charge and less but still disturbing evidence for the latter.

These two may not be the most unpopular pair of major party presidential nominees in history. James Buchanan and John C. Fremont in 1856 may have been worse, at least to judge from their later feckless careers.

But of all the nominee pairs since random sampling polling was invented in 1935, Trump and Clinton certainly win the prize. Majorities of voters look negatively on both and consider each dishonest and untrustworthy. It's not hard to see why.

And...a new political era is about to begin:

A Bloomberg poll asked Republicans and Democrats which of several figures should be the face of their party nationally if their nominee loses. A plurality of Democrats, 32 percent, said Hillary Clinton and 6 percent Tim Kaine. But 31 percent said Bernie Sanders and 23 percent Elizabeth Warren.

Among Republicans, 24 percent said Donald Trump, far below the percentage supporting him against Clinton. But a total of 71 percent picked the more conventional conservative alternatives Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan and John Kasich.

That's a crude measure, but it provides an interesting hint of the politics that's just a couple of weeks ahead.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  No one knows more about the statistics of American politics than Michael Barone. 

October 24, 2016        Permalink

POLLS – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  All but three polls show Hillary Clinton with a lead of from 4 to 12 points.

The exceptions are the L.A. Times tracker, Rasmussen, and, most important, IBD/Tipp, which has the best track record in the last three presidential elections.  L.A. Times and IBD have flipped in the last few days from a narrow Trump lead to a razor-thin Clinton lead.  Ras still shows a two-point Trump lead.

Both Ras and IBD are now publishing advisories noting that they are not among the majority of polls.  I don't know if this is caution or bravado.  They may be saying, "Look, we could be wrong."  Or, they could be saying, "We're brave and we're right."

This is what IBD says: 

Unlike many other polls, the IBD/TIPP Poll continues to show a tightening race, as the candidates and their surrogates slug it out in public in the waning days until the Nov. 8 polling date.

In the latest Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Clinton stands at 45.0% to Trump's 39.4%, a 5.6% advantage in the four-way contest. In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton takes 47.9% to Trump's 42.0%, a 5.9% difference.

Rasmussen puts it this way:

Rasmussen Reports is one of three national polls that still shows the race as competitive with two weeks to go; most others portray Clinton with a wide – and, in some cases, growing - lead.

COMMENT:  Who knows?   Polls in battleground states generally favor Clinton, who is now projected by some reputable services to get more than 300 electoral votes.  A candidate needs 270 to win.

But there are still two weeks to go.  The odds heavily favor Clinton, but a dramatic event could disrupt predictions.  If truth be told, dramatic events rarely happen.  The issue now is whether the bulk of the polls are accurate, or whether the three holdouts are seeing something that the others have missed.

October 24, 2016       Permalink